IFS analysis for the 2017 general election

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IFS researchers presented analysis of the manifestos at a briefing on Friday 26 May. Presentations compared the  parties' plans on public spending, the public finances  and reforms to taxes and benefits. The briefing was live-streamed and a recording will be posted shortly.


In this observation, we detail what the commitments outlined in the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat manifestos on education spending would mean for the path of overall school spending in England and the prospects for continued reform of the school funding system.


Yesterday, the Conservative Party proposed changes to the rules governing who is eligible for government funding for social care, and backed away from a lifetime cap on care costs. In this observation, we discuss those changes and lay out their potential effects.


Recruitment and retention problems are beginning to emerge in the public sector following successive years of public pay restraint. The main parties’ plans for future public sector pay settlements differ significantly.  A new IFS briefing note analyses the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat plans for public sector pay, and what the implications of their policies are for the public sector.


In a comment piece in The Times, IFS Director Paul Johnson reflects on the Conservative and Labour manifestos.


Today’s Conservative manifesto announced that from 2020 onwards the state pension would be increased over time in line with average earnings or inflation whichever is highest – the so-called ‘Double Lock’. In this observation we show that this is very similar to sticking with the Triple Lock, and does little to resolve the pressures an ageing population will put on the public finances over the years to come.


Childcare and early years provision has become an important area of debate in this election, with both the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats promising to substantially extend eligibility for free childcare.This Observation looks and the possible impact and cost of the Labour and Liberal Democrat proposals.


The Liberal Democrat manifesto published today includes commitments to increase all rates of income tax by 1 percentage point as well as cancelling a number of significant benefit cuts and reversing others. In this observation we provide an overview of these proposals and compare them to the income tax and benefit proposals published by Labour yesterday.


Today the Labour Party has announced that if elected it would introduce a 45% income tax rate on incomes over £80,000, and a 50% rate on incomes over £123,000. A new IFS Briefing Note analyses the impact of this proposal if it were introduced UK-wide immediately.


This briefing note provides background information on the police service in England and Wales.  It details recent changes in police numbers and in police funding, and examines some indicators of police performance in the light of these changes. It also considers briefly the Labour Party’s proposal to increase the number of police officers.


In a new comment piece for The Times, IFS Director Paul Johnson says what we really need is an honest debate about tax.


The UK population is ageing rapidly. This ageing of the population puts pressure on public spending because older individuals receive state pensions and they are more likely to use relatively expensive health and social care. This briefing note sets out the trade-offs that this presents for the public finances.